MARKET ACADEMY

7 · Credit: default, spreads and refinancing

Separate government-rate risk from corporate credit risk.

MARKET ACADEMY · 12 CHAPTERS

7 · Credit: default, spreads and refinancing

Separate government-rate risk from corporate credit risk.

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01

A corporate bond carries several risks

An investor lending to a company requires compensation for time, expected default losses, uncertainty and liquidity. The corporate yield can be viewed approximately as a matched government or reference yield plus a credit spread. Matching maturity and optionality matters. A higher yield is not automatically a better bargain: it may simply compensate for a greater probability of loss. Credit analysis examines cash flow, leverage, interest coverage, collateral, covenants and the maturity schedule.

02

Investment grade, high yield and OAS

Investment grade generally starts at BBB− for S&P/Fitch or Baa3 for Moody’s; lower ratings are high yield. Ratings are opinions and can lag changing conditions. An option-adjusted spread attempts to remove the value of embedded options to compare credit compensation more consistently. Spreads also reflect liquidity and risk premiums, so they are not pure default probabilities. A widening spread is usually unfavorable for an existing corporate bond’s price, holding the reference curve fixed.

03

Refinancing transmits markets into the business

A company with fixed-rate debt may not immediately pay higher interest when markets reprice. The effect grows as debt matures and must be refinanced, or if borrowing is floating-rate. Higher interest expense reduces cash available for reinvestment, debt reduction or shareholders. Companies with low liquidity buffers or near-term maturity walls can be more vulnerable. Debt/EBITDA and interest coverage are useful screens, but require consistent definitions and cannot replace a cash-flow forecast.

Corporate yield decomposedInteractive or illustrative example · no live prices
Initial4% reference2% spread6%
Stress3.5% reference3% spread6.5%

Reference rate falls 50 bps, but spread rises 100 bps: total yield rises 50 bps.

Mechanism in pictures

  1. 1Growth or issuer outlook weakens
  2. 2Investors demand a wider spread
  3. 3Refinancing cost increases
  4. 4Cash flow and equity risk can deteriorate

Vocabulary, one term at a time

Credit spread
Yield compensation above a comparable reference curve.
Interest coverage
Earnings or cash-flow measure divided by interest expense; specify the numerator.
Explore the full dictionary →

Formula and worked example

Corporate yield ≈ reference yield + credit spread

Illustration: government yield 4%, spread 2% gives corporate yield about 6%. If government yield falls to 3.5% but spread widens to 3%, the corporate yield rises to 6.5%. A government-bond rally can coexist with corporate-bond losses.

CHECK YOUR UNDERSTANDING

Reference yield 3%, spread 250 bps: approximate corporate yield?

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Primary sources and further reading

SEC / Investor.gov · Bonds ↗FINRA · Duration ↗ECB · Reference exchange rates ↗Cboe · VIX methodology and interpretation ↗FRED · 10Y–2Y spread ↗